RaboResearch In The News

August 2020

Cow Size Not One Size Fits All

Animal Protein Analyst Dustin Aherin discussed how cow size translates into profitability at a recent industry webinar. Currently, there is no industry consensus on the optimal cow size, Aherin said. This is because one size does not fit all. The right size depends on the operation’s goals and other factors including geography, management practices and marketing strategies, he explained.

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Expect Weakness in Poultry Markets to Close 2020

Senior Animal Protein Analyst Christine McCracken discusses the outlook for global poultry markets in an interview with WATT Ag Net. Although there's been a rebound in foodservice demand that has helped poultry prices, the arrival of colder winter months will likely hurt operations that have successfully shifted their operations outdoors in response to COVID-19, she explains. There is also a continued threat of supply exceeding demand which could prevent a rebound in poultry prices before the end of the year. However, feed cost pressure could push poultry producers to cut back production.

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Is ASF in Germany Sending the Wrong Signals to U.S. Pork Producers? 

Senior Animal Protein Analyst Christine McCracken explains how an African Swine Fever outbreak in Germany could affect global pork markets. While McCracken does not see ASF as a threat to Germany’s commercial swine industry, she says that it will hurt Germany’s pork exports in the short term. This could create opportunities for other European countries with access to Asian markets, she says. Labor is expected to be the biggest challenge in the fourth quarter. “I think that will determine, more than anything, the value of our pigs and how much pork we have available to sell into the market,” she says.

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Dairy Markets Expected to Rebalance

Dairy Analyst Ben Laine says that U.S. dairy markets can expect a rebalancing of retail and foodservice demand and milk production growth in Q4. Overall, the outlook is mostly positive for milk producers.  Milk prices have recovered, largely due to government purchases. “What looked like it was going to be a dire situation turned out much better than what was to be expected,” said Laine. Exports to China have also been strong, which has helped support the price recovery. Looking ahead, Laine expects some continued volatility in export markets, and says there is certainly more room for both upside and downside price pressure.

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Study Sees Lasting Impact of COVID on Grain Sector

Rabobank grains and oilseeds analysts outline seven major changes for the G&O industry in the post-COVID world in a new report. These include a retreat from globalization, a greater focus on flexibility and digitalization of supply chains, and increased concern over food security and safety. "In a post-Covid-19 world, every player in the G&O supply chain – from producers, farm input suppliers, and grain merchandisers to processors and grain–based food manufacturers – will be impacted," says Senior Grain and Oilseeds Analyst Stephen Nicholson. "There will be opportunities to be successful, including digitizing the supply chain, grain companies building on core strengthsand processors developing flexibility to adapt to rapidly changing consumer behavior.”

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Flattening Fresh Blueberry Prices Shift Industry Paradigm

Senior Analysts David Magaña and Roland Fumasi expect that more consistent year-round availability of blueberries will put downward pressure on prices in 2020-21, particularly during the waning months of the season. "By 2025, blueberry prices in the U.S. market are expected to be relatively flat throughout the year, fluctuating mainly due to weather shocks in growing regions,” they write. Looking ahead, companies will need to adjust their strategies to focus on product differentiation and strategic partnerships or acquisitions, they say.

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Heather Stettner
Office: (308) 385-7968
Heather.Stettner@RaboAg.com

 

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