RaboResearch In The News

April 2021

A Looming Shortage of Bacon and Hot Dogs Could Leave Big Cookout Plans Up In Smoke for July Fourth When Most Americans are Vaccinated

Senior Animal Protein Analyst Christine McCracken predicts increased demand for pork products this summer, especially as vaccinations pick up. "BBQs and family gatherings are going to be a nice way of reconnecting and will be a big driver of meat demand in the coming months," she tells Business Insider. However, hog supplies are lower due to reduced production last year and higher disease losses this past winter. Short supplies coupled with increased demand will likely drive prices higher, she says. 
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Waiting on Ag Chemicals

Shipping backlogs and pandemic-related delays are contributing to a shortage of herbicides and fungicides this spring, according to Farm Inputs Analyst Sam Taylor. Internationally, wholesale prices for glufosinate and glyphosate have increased 50% in the last year, and these costs are getting passed on to farmers, he says. While production and shipping will eventually catch up to demand, farmers might still experience local shortages of chemicals throughout the season.
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How the Beef Industry is Managing Pricing During the Pandemic

As COVID-19 escalated in 2020, packing plant shutdowns led to temporary meat shortages and price volatility. A new boxed beef index aims to bridge the gap between producer and consumer. The move could help the long-term success of the beef industry. The past year was “the most volatile, tumultuous period for the beef industry I’ve seen in 45 years,” said Don Close, Senior Animal Protein Analyst. The excess supplies weighed on live cattle prices, resulting in abnormally wide “spreads” with wholesale benchmarks and steep losses for many feedlot owners. A rally in corn prices, a primary cattle feed ingredient, added to feedlots’ pain, Close said.
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Lock in Profits Before Input Costs Catch Up with Grain Prices

While grain farmers are enjoying higher commodity prices now, RaboResearch Senior Grains and Oilseeds Analyst Steve Nicholson says history shows higher input costs and tighter margins will soon follow, challenging profitability as early as next year. “We’re optimistic that over the next two or three years commodity prices will be supported but we know those input costs will come up to meet them.” He says farmers can also ensure economic sustainability by using this time to make multi-year deals on inputs, update technology on the farm and finalize farm succession planning. 
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Heather.Stettner@RaboAg.com

 

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